A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
